Effects of calibration on L-THIA GIS runoff and pollutant estimation

Urbanization can result in alteration of a watershed's hydrologic response and water quality. To simulate hydrologic and water quality impacts of land use changes, the Long-Term Hydrologic Impact Assessment (L-THIA) system has been used. The L-THIA system estimates pollutant loading based on direct runoff quantity and land use based pollutant coefficients. The accurate estimation of direct runoff is important in assessing water quality impacts of land use changes. An automated program was developed to calibrate the L-THIA model using the millions of curve number (CN) combinations associated with land uses and hydrologic soil groups. L-THIA calibration for the Little Eagle Creek (LEC) watershed near Indianapolis, Indiana was performed using land use data for 1991 and daily rainfall data for six months of 1991 (January 1-June 30) to minimize errors associated with use of different temporal land use data and rainfall data. For the calibration period, the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient was 0.60 for estimated and observed direct runoff. The calibrated CN values were used for validation of the model for the same year (July 1-December 31), and the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient was 0.60 for estimated and observed direct runoff. The Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient was 0.52 for January 1, 1991 to December 31, 1991 using uncalibrated CN values. As shown in this study, the use of better input parameters for the L-THIA model can improve accuracy. The effects on direct runoff and pollutant estimation of the calibrated CN values in the L-THIA model were investigated for the LEC. Following calibration, the estimated average annual direct runoff for the LEC watershed increased by 34%, total nitrogen by 24%, total phosphorus by 22%, and total lead by 43%. This study demonstrates that the L-THIA model should be calibrated and validated prior to application in a particular watershed to more accurately assess the effects of land use changes on hydrology and water quality.     

苏州河干流水质模型的开发研究

对《苏州河水质模型的开发》课题完成的大部分内容进行了介绍，包括水质模型的选择及其原理、模型研究的内容与开发方法、干流水质模型的率定与验证，并据此给出了关于苏州河水环境特性的一些参数值，计算的基准时间为1999年夏季苏州河第3次调水试验时期。需要指出的是，苏州河正处于动态的综合整治过程中，模型中有关参数也会随其相应改变。     

硫磺回收装置标定及分析

本文对Ⅱ套SRU的标定结果，进行了比较详细的技术分析，在此基础上，对装置及其运行状况作出了评价，并提出了一些建设。     

红外法测定石油类项目中标准曲线的简化绘制

目前GB/T164 88-1996以红外分光光度法这测定石油类的有一种方法。该法用四氯代碳作莘取剂 ,四氯化碳用量大。四氯化碳是一种有毒、挥发性较强的有机溶剂。在监测该项目时 ,绘制标准曲线所用的标准储备液的配制相当复杂且形成的系统误差比较大 ,为减少误差并准确地绘制标准曲线 ,本文采取了简化配制步骤的方法来绘制曲线 ,并达到了与JDS -10 0型红外分光测油仪使用说明书中提供的方法一致的效果。     

振荡辐射下PMMA 热解与着火过程研究

采用正弦波变化振荡的辐射热流,对热厚PMMA(聚甲基丙烯酸甲酯)的热解和着火过程进行研究,同时采用数值模拟,对实验结果进行验证和补充。结果表明,表面温度和深度温度随着时间而增加,温度由于周期性的辐射而发生振荡,而振荡幅度随着深度的增加而衰减;表面温度与深度温度振荡存在时间延迟;着火时间随着热流振荡周期的增大而减小,主要由于平均热流密度随着周期增大而增大。     

Modeling a spatially restricted distribution in the Neotropics: How the size of calibration area affects the performance of five presence-only methods

We here examine species distribution models for a Neotropical anuran restricted to ombrophilous areas in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest hotspot. We extend the known occurrence for the treefrog Hypsiboas bischoffi (Anura: Hylidae) through GPS field surveys and use five modeling methods (BIOCLIM, DOMAIN, OM-GARP, SVM, and MAXENT) and selected bioclimatic and topographic variables to model the species distribution. Models were first trained using two calibration areas: the Brazilian Atlantic Forest (BAF) and the whole of South America (SA). All modeling methods showed good levels of predictive power and accuracy with mean AUC ranging from 0.77 (BIOCLIM/BAF) to 0.99 (MAXENT/SA). MAXENT and SVM were the most accurate presence-only methods among those tested here. All but the SVM models calibrated with SA predicted larger distribution areas when compared to models calibrated in BAF. OM-GARP dramatically overpredicted the species distribution for the model calibrated in SA, with a predicted area around 10⁶ km² larger than predicted by other SDMs. With increased calibration area (and environmental space), OM-GARP predictions followed changes in the environmental space associated with the increased calibration area, while MAXENT models were more consistent across calibration areas. MAXENT was the only method that retrieved consistent predictions across calibration areas, while allowing for some overprediction, a result that may be relevant for modeling the distribution of other spatially restricted organisms.     

The role of periodic boundary forcing in plankton pattern formation

We consider one and two-dimensional minimal models in plankton dynamics. The influence of oscillating boundary forcing functions as agents for triggering pattern formation is discussed. In particular it is found that in these conditions population waves arise for one dimensional models, while for two dimensional models, different amplitudes and frequencies in the boundary forcing generate definite patterns, mimicking the boundary term. This happens even though the model we investigate is very simple. The emergence of these features is an interesting metaphor for the fundamental biological problem of how pattern formation processes may be inevitable in natural heterogeneous ecosystems.     

A method for determining the analytical form of a radionuclide depth distribution using multiple gamma spectrometry measurements

When characterizing environmental radioactivity, whether in the soil or within concrete building structures undergoing remediation or decommissioning, it is highly desirable to know the radionuclide depth distribution. This is typically modeled using continuous analytical expressions, whose forms are believed to best represent the true source distributions. In situ gamma ray spectroscopic measurements are combined with these models to fully describe the source. Currently, the choice of analytical expressions is based upon prior experimental core sampling results at similar locations, any known site history, or radionuclide transport models. This paper presents a method, employing multiple in situ measurements at a single site, for determining the analytical form that best represents the true depth distribution present. The measurements can be made using a variety of geometries, each of which has a different sensitivity variation with source spatial distribution. Using non-linear least squares numerical optimization methods, the results can be fit to a collection of analytical models and the parameters of each model determined. The analytical expression that results in the fit with the lowest residual is selected as the most accurate representation. A cursory examination is made of the effects of measurement errors on the method.     

Testing ecological models: the meaning of validation

The ecological literature reveals considerable confusion about the meaning of validation in the context of simulation models. The confusion arises as much from semantic and philosophical considerations as from the selection of validation procedures. Validation is not a procedure for testing scientific theory or for certifying the ‘truth’ of current scientific understanding, nor is it a required activity of every modelling project. Validation means that a model is acceptable for its intended use because it meets specified performance requirements.Before validation is undertaken, (1) the purpose of the model, (2) the performance criteria, and (3) the model context must be specified. The validation process can be decomposed into several components: (1) operation, (2) theory, and (3) data. Important concepts needed to understand the model evaluation process are verification, calibration, validation, credibility, and qualification. These terms are defined in a limited technical sense applicable to the evaluation of simulation models, and not as general philosophical concepts. Different tests and standards are applied to the operational, theoretical, and data components. The operational and data components can be validated; the theoretical component cannot.The most common problem with ecological and environmental models is failure to state what the validation criteria are. Criteria must be explicitly stated because there are no universal standards for selecting what test procedures or criteria to use for validation. A test based on comparison of simulated versus observed data is generally included whenever possible. Because the objective and subjective components of validation are not mutually exclusive, disagreements over the meaning of validation can only be resolved by establishing a convention.     

造纸机械用灰铸铁烘缸定期检验要点分析

灰铸铁烘缸具有特殊的铸造结构特征与灰铸铁材质特点,其定期检验要求不同于常规焊制金属压力容器。本文结合定期检验项目要求及现场检验经验,对造纸机械用灰铸铁烘缸的宏观检验、壁厚测定、无损检测、硬度检测、安全附件及仪表、耐压试验等定期检验项目进行了检验检测要点分析与探讨。